Super Bowl XLV: What bettors need to know
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers (-3, 44.5)
With two of the oldest franchises squaring off, this year’s Super Bowl is being pegged as one of the most historic in NFL history.
“We think it’s going to be one of the most popular Super Bowls ever,” said Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the Las Vegas Hilton. “These are the two most popular teams playing for the crown.”
The Steelers’ “Stairway to 7” started as a season of unknowns where the star quarterback was suspended for the first four games. Ben Roethlisberger has matured since his offseason transgression and will join elite quarterback company if he claims his third ring in six years.
Green Bay will aim to return the Lombardi Trophy to the land of its namesake. Forgotten is the player who tarnished his legacy among the Cheesheads as they have crowned a new savior—Aaron Rodgers.
Weather report
A snowstorm hit the Super Bowl destination as teams, fans and media infiltrated Arlington. There is a 40 percent chance of precipitation for Super Sunday with a high of 41 degrees, but anyone holding a ticket won’t feel the brunt of Mother Nature.
The retractable roof at Cowboys Stadium will be closed which should create a kickoff temperature somewhere in the low 70s.
Most pundits agree the climate-controlled venue favors the Packers. Since Rodgers took over in 2008, Green Bay has played in 12 dome games where it averaged 31.8 points per. Rodgers posted a 111.1 QB rating in that sampling behind 26 touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Packers wideouts, although not a speedy group, will benefit from the artificial turf. Greg Jennings registered at least 100 yards through the air in seven of the team’s 12 indoor games. Green Bay put up 48 and 45 points in its last two postseason dome games.
Professional handicapper Ted Sevransky told Covers last week that, “The Steelers thrive in sloppy conditions.” Since 2008, Pittsburgh has played in just two dome games, struggling to beat the Lions last year and only producing 10 points in a defeat to New Orleans at the Superdome this season.
Wagering numbers
The line for Super Bowl XLV has been tight for two weeks and with equal action coming in on these public darlings, the sportsbooks are already winning.
Kornegay said that while he didn’t expect this year’s handle to exceed the $94 million the state of Nevada wrote for the 2006 title game (Seahawks-Steelers), he does anticipate it will surpass last year’s total of $82 million.
When the Divisional Round playoff games were set, Covers interviewed a member of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants regarding potential Super Bowl lines. At that time, the LVSC spokesperson said a Packers-Steelers matchup would position Pittsburgh as a 1-point favorite with a total of 41.5. The oddsmaking group preferred the Steelers because of experience.
When the spread and total for this matchup surfaced on January 23, the numbers were much different. Covers’ opening line report indicated the majority of shops on the strip sent out a spread of 1.5 in favor of the Packers and a total of 46.
Within minutes, early bettors backed the Pack and moved the spread to -2. The next morning that number had elevated to -2.5 (-120) and the majority of offshore markets were offering -3 (+100).
Sevransky offered an explanation where the market was more impressed by three road wins by Green Bay compared to two sloppy halves of football at home by the Steelers.
A recent Covers report asked oddsmakers to divulge where they predicted the spread will land at kickoff. Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager of the MGM, said that he expects it to settle at -3 with a -110 juice. Bodog.com is already dealing a field goal and manager Richard Gardner doesn’t suspect they will move off that number.
Sharp total bettors hammered the under two Mondays ago, driving the opener down from 46 to 44. As the first week of betting progressed, the total moved up a half point and a few books had 45 on the board by Friday of this week. Stoneback said if the total goes anywhere it will move upward because the “tourists” prefer to bet the over.
The moneyline for the game hasn’t budged much. It opened with the Packers at -140 and Pittsburgh at +120. Stoneback said that wiseguy bettors often play the favorite late so if you like the Steelers to win straight up it might be beneficial to wait closer to kickoff.
Injury report
After nearly a two-week delay, Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey has officially been ruled out. Mike Tomlin confirmed the status after Friday’s practice in which the rookie did not participate. Many consider Pouncey to be the best member of an offensive line that yields one sack every nine pass plays.
Backup Doug Legursky will make his first NFL start at center as Pouncey’s replacement. He will have to contend with the bull-rushing B.J. Raji in the interior. The Steelers already had to place two offensive tackles (Willie Colon, Max Starks) on injured reserve this season and reserve tackle Chris Scott missed the AFC Championship with a head injury.
Fellow lineman Chris Kemoeatu said Pouncey’s injury will serve as motivation for the rest of the team.
“We are definitely sad that he won’t be able to be with us in the Super Bowl,” Kemoeatu said. “We just have to win it for him. We know how big this is for him and him not being able to play is definitely motivating for us to go out there and get that ring for him.”
Troy Polamalu has dressed for the last three Pittsburgh games but some speculate he’s not fully recovered from an Achilles injury. The Steelers dropped him back into deep coverage more than usual and the strong safety recorded a total of eight tackles during those games.
On the Packers side, Donald Driver tweaked his quad in practice this week and has been limited but Mike McCarthy said Friday that Driver will play. Outside linebacker Erik Walden is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
Stat pack
Both of these defenses were top-flight units in 2010. The Steelers finished first in opponent points allowed (14.5 ppg) while the Packers ranked second (15.0 ppg). Pittsburgh gave up the second-fewest yards at 276.8 per game and Green Bay ranked fifth at 309.1 yards a contest.
The Steelers took home the sack title as well with 48 on the season. No other linebacker corps in the league produced more sacks (32.5) than James Harrison, Lamar Woodley and Co.
Not far behind, Green Bay finished second during the regular season in sacks (47.0). Its group of linebackers, led by Clay Matthews, tallied 26 takedowns this year. In three playoff games, the Packers defense has posted 10 sacks and 15 quarterback hits.
If you had to nitpick and pinpoint a weakness in the Steelers defense, it would be the secondary. That grouping allowed 214.1 yards per outing which ranked 12th in the NFL. Green Bay gave up 194.2 passing yards a game which was fifth. Both Green Bay (24) and Pittsburgh (21) finished in the top 5 in interceptions.
For the Packers, the primary weak spot is defending the run, particularly between the tackles. Green Bay finished ranked 18th against the run this year (114.9 ypg). Pittsburgh surrendered just 62.8 rushing yards per game which was 27.3 yards better than the next-best team.
Offensively, these teams were very similar as well. The Packers averaged 24.3 points and 358.1 yards a contest while Pittsburgh posted 23.4 points and 345.3 yards per. All of those marks ranked in the Top 15 among league leaders.
With Rodgers transforming into the NFC’s top gunslinger, Green Bay averaged 257.8 passing yards a game which ranked fifth-best. The more conservative Pittsburgh offense finished 14th with an average of 225.1 yards through the air.
No team has ever won the Super Bowl ranking last in rushing and, while the Packers weren’t quite that bad, they did finish the regular season ranked 24th at 100.4 yards a game. The Steelers averaged 120.3 yards per contest on the ground.
Last meeting
When the Steelers and Packers squared off in Week 15 of the 2009 season, one team had won five consecutive games and the other had dropped five straight. The Steelers were positioned as 2.5-point favorites for the game with a total of 41.5.
Pittsburgh snapped its skid with a 37-36, last-second victory. Much like Super Bowl XLIII when Big Ben found Santonio Holmes in the corner of the end zone, he connected with Mike Wallace in the same place as time expired in this shootout.
Although both defenses were ranked in the top 4 going into this matchup, there wasn’t much defense to be found. Pittsburgh amassed 537 total yards on 70 plays and Green Bay had 436 on 61 snaps. Both squads were efficient on third-downs opportunities with the Packers converting 10 of 16 and the Steelers 7 of 16.
Neither team had more than 65 yards rushing but the Steelers were able to hold onto the ball for 11 more minutes than Green Bay. Mike McCarthy only called nine run plays.
Roethlisberger found Wallace streaking down the sideline on Pittsburgh’s first play from scrimmage for a 60-yard score and he finished the day with 503 yards and three touchdowns on 29 of 46 passing. Rodgers completed 26 of 48 attempts for 383 yards and three scores as well as a rushing touchdown. Neither team committed a turnover but Green Bay compiled five sacks.
Common ground
Green Bay and Pittsburgh played five common opponents during the regular season.
New York Jets: The Packers won 9-0 as road underdogs in Week 8. Pittsburgh lost at home, 22-17, in Week 15 as 3.5-point chalk.
Buffalo Bills: Green Bay won 34-7 in Week 2 as hefty home favorites. The Steelers eked out a 19-16 road victory in Week 12 as 6.5-point faves.
New England Patriots: Pittsburgh was thoroughly worked over during a 39-26 home loss in Week 10 as 4.5-point favorites. Playing without Aaron Rodgers in Week 15, the Packers nearly pulled off the impossible with a win at Foxboro but dropped a 31-27 decision as double-digit dogs in the end.
Miami Dolphins: Green Bay was searching for its identity in Week 6 and lost at home, 23-20, as 2.5-point chalk. The Steelers won on the road, 23-22, in Week 7 as field-goal favorites.
Atlanta Falcons: In the season opener sans Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh pulled out a 15-9 home win as 1-point underdogs. The Packers dropped a 20-17 decision on a last-second field goal in Week 12 as 2.5-point pups.
The Steelers went 3-1 SU and ATS versus NFC competition (Falcons, Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers) this season. The Packers compiled 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS records against the AFC (Buffalo, Miami, New York, New England).
Familiar face
There could be one X-factor most handicappers are overlooking in this matchup.
Dom Capers was the defensive coordinator in Pittsburgh from 1992-94 when Dick LeBeau was the defensive backs coach. But Jeremy Kapinos was a member of the Packers organization more recently, and now he plays for the Steelers.
Kapinos punted for Green Bay during the 2009 season. The Packers let him go after that year and he remained a street free agent until Daniel Sepulveda tore his ACL in Week 13. Pittsburgh was in need of a punter and signed Kapinos.
While the knowledge doesn’t always pay off, Kapinos might be able to provide valuable special teams information to the Steelers as punt coverages and situations could be identified.
Notes and trends
- In 19 games this season, the Packers have not trailed by more than a touchdown at any time.
- The Jeff Sagarin ratings supply Pittsburgh with a 31.35 rating and Green Bay with a 31.18 number.
- According to the Sagarin ratings, the Packers went 7-3 against top 10 teams while the Steelers went 4-4 against top 10 teams.
- If a team scores more than 32 points in the Super Bowl they are a perfect 18-0 straight up.
- Super Bowl favorites that score fewer than 30 points are 3-12 ATS in the last 20 years.
- Teams that fail to score 21 points in the Super Bowl are 1-20 SU and 3-17-1 ATS while teams that post 21 points or more are 26-9 SU and 23-9-3 ATS.
- When a team scores 27 points or more it is 22-1 SU and 19-3-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
- Halftime bettors should know that teams with a lead at the Super Bowl break are 33-8 straight up.
- In the 44-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread.
- The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Super Bowls.
- The NFC has covered three straight Super Bowls but the AFC has won five of the last seven.
- Teams that win the Super Bowl time of possession battle are 31-10-3 ATS.
- The total has gone OVER in 15 of last 24 Super Bowls.
- Five of the last six Super Bowls have gone UNDER.
- A Super Bowl has never gone into overtime.
- Higher-seeded Super Bowl teams are 1-11-2 ATS.
- Super Bowl XLV will mark the first time in nine years the NFC is listed as the favorite.
